Once hailed as one of the finest players of spin in modern-day cricket, Babar Azam’s game now finds itself under the microscope. For years, he was praised for his calmness, precise footwork, and ability to rotate strike effortlessly against slow bowlers. However, a deeper look at the numbers paints a different story: his record against spin before 2021 reflects control and dominance against world-class bowlers, while the period after 2021 highlights a noticeable dip, with increasing dot-ball pressure and lower strike rates against specialist spinners. This shift has sparked a growing debate: has Babar’s strength against spin gradually turned into a weakness, or is it just a temporary slump magnified by expectations?
To move beyond opinions, the best way is to examine the numbers statistically. By dividing Babar’s career into two phases — (i) from debut to 1 Jan 2021 and (ii) from 1 Jan 2021 to present — we can objectively assess whether his performance against spin has shown signs of decline.
(Note: To make the data more contextual, some minimum requirements will be applied for example, only including matchups with at least ~10 balls faced or a minimum of 2–3 innings, since smaller samples are too limited to draw meaningful conclusions. Additionally, the data is split into two phases: Pre-2021 (from debut to January 1, 2021) and Post-2021 (from January 1, 2021 to present).
ODIs: Babar Azam’s performance vs spin
| Bowler | Pre-2021 | Post-2021 | ||||
| Avg | SR | Dot% | Avg | SR | Dot% | |
| Left-arm Orthodox | 152 | 87.1 | 43.6 | 74.2 | 78.4 | 48.5 |
| Right-arm Legbreak | 119.8 | 90.2 | 40.3 | 62.4 | 101.4 | 41.3 |
| Right-arm Offbreak | 70.2 | 84.5 | 40.8 | 42.6 | 73.2 | 51.1 |
| Left-arm Chinaman | 27 | 84.4 | 43.8 | 36.5 | 76 | 46.9 |
Analytical Observations:
- Average Decline: His mean dismissal cost against spin has dropped significantly: vs orthodox (↓51%), vs legbreak (↓48%), vs offbreak (↓39%). This indicates reduced consistency and susceptibility to dismissals.
- Strike Rate Variation: While his SR vs leg-spin improved (+12%, from 90.2 → 101.4), against orthodox (↓10%) and off-spin (↓13%) it declined, highlighting a lack of scoring fluency.
- Dot-ball Pressure: Dot% vs offbreak rose sharply from 40.8 → 51.1 (+10.3 percentage points). A Dot% above 50% suggests a failure to rotate strike, putting him under scoreboard pressure.
Overall, in ODIs, the decline in average and the rise in dot-ball percentage are statistically significant, indicating a systematic struggle against conventional spin.
T20I Performance: Babar Azam’s performance vs spin
| Bowler | Pre-2021 | Post-2021 | ||||
| Avg | SR | Dot% | Avg | SR | Dot% | |
| Left-arm Orthodox | 72 | 114.3 | 22.2 | 70.2 | 105.2 | 34.8 |
| Right-arm Legbreak | 65.5 | 119.1 | 24.5 | 33.8 | 138.1 | 24.8 |
| Right-arm Offbreak | 182 | 128.2 | 22.5 | 15.1 | 108 | 33.9 |
| Left-arm Chinaman | 56 | 114.3 | 24.5 | — | 160.6 | 18.2 |
Analytical Observations:
- Severe Decline vs Off-spin: Average collapsed from 182 → 15.1 (−91.7%), the most drastic deterioration in his dataset. Simultaneously, dot-ball % surged from 22.5 → 33.9, implying reduced ability to manipulate gaps.
- Orthodox Spin: While average is stable (72 → 70.2), the efficiency of strike rotation deteriorated badly (Dot% +12.6pp).
- Leg-spin Trade-off: Against legbreaks, his increased intent strike rate spiked from 119.1 → 138.1 (+16%), but average halved (65.5 → 33.8), suggesting more risk-taking but also more dismissals.
This shows a clear structural weakness in T20Is: once dominant against off-spin, Babar is now struggling both in terms of survival (average collapse) and strike manipulation (dot% increase).
T20 numbers vs spinners
We will be checking Babar Azam’s record against different spin bowlers individually, comparing his performances across two phases
1. Common Bowlers Across Both Phases
Adam Zampa
Performance Decline → Strike rate dipped (102 → 95), dot% more than doubled (17 → 39), dismissals rose (0 → 3). Clear regression.
Adil Rashid
Performance Decline → Strike rate collapsed (140 → 105) with higher dismissals (1 → 3). Only slight improvement in dot%, but overall negative trend.
Ish Sodhi
Performance Improvement → Strike rate increased (118 → 136) with higher scoring volume. Slight increase in dot% and dismissals, but overall more productive.
Tabraiz Shamsi
Strong Improvement → Major strike rate jump (116 → 161), dot% reduced (32 → 18). Remained unbeaten in both phases.
2. Strike Rate Distribution Analysis
Pre-2021 (13 matchups)
- Below 120 SR: Adam Zampa (102), D’Arcy Short (115), Ish Sodhi (118), Samuel Badree (101), Sunil Narine (118), Tabraiz Shamsi (116) → 6 bowlers
- 120 or Above SR: Ashton Agar (140), Adil Rashid (140), Imran Tahir (152), Mahedi Hasan (190), Nathan Lyon (123), Sikandar Raza (179) → 6 bowlers
Balanced split: 6 low SR vs 6 high SR
Before 2021, against top bowlers like Adil Rashid, Imran Tahir, Shakib Al Hasan, and Sikandar Raza, Babar had a strike rate above 120, which demonstrates his dominance.
Post-2021 (24 matchups)
- Below 120 SR: Adam Zampa (95), Akeal Hosein (93), Adil Rashid (105), Liam Dawson (100), Michael Bracewell (97), Wanindu Hasaranga (50), Rachin Ravindra (92), Rashid Khan (90), Mujeeb Ur Rahman (50), Nasum Ahmed (50), Shakib Al Hasan (118), Saad Bin Zafar (111) → 12 bowlers
- 120 or Above SR: Ish Sodhi (136), George Linde (126), Hayden Walsh Jr (155), Liam Livingstone (125), Mitchell Santner (121), Moeen Ali (200), Mark Watt (153), Nathan Peter (200), Ryan Burl (123), Tabraiz Shamsi (161) → 10 bowlers
Skewed toward struggles: 12 low SR vs 10 high SR
Post-2021, Babar has recorded a strike rate below 120 against top bowlers like Adam Zampa, Akeal Hosein, Adil Rashid, Michael Bracewell, Rashid Khan, and Mujeeb Ur Rahman, while his strike rate has remained above 120 primarily against part-time bowlers.
Also read: The concept of Babar Azam
Venue-Wise T20I Batting (Pre-2021 vs Post-2021)
1. Australia
- Pre-2021: Avg 50 | SR 135.1 | Dot% 16.2
- Post-2021: Avg 15.3 | SR 95.8 | Dot% 33.3
Big Decline → SR dropped (135 → 96), dot% doubled (16 → 33), average collapsed (50 → 15).
2. England
- Pre-2021: Avg 63 | SR 150 | Dot% 26.2
- Post-2021: Avg 29 | SR 156.8 | Dot% 21.6
Average drop more than 50%
3. New Zealand
- Pre-2021: Avg 41 | SR 105.1 | Dot% 20.5
- Post-2021: | Avg 22.4 | SR 109.8 | Dot% 34.3
Mixed → Slight SR rise, but dot% ballooned (20 → 34) and average halved (41 → 22). Struggles with rotation post-2021.
4. Pakistan (Home)
- Pre-2021: Avg 91.5 | SR 138.6 | Dot% 16.7
- Post-2021: Avg 26.8 | SR 126.6 | Dot% 25.4
Regression → Average dropped sharply (91 → 27), SR reduced (139 → 127), dot% increased. Home comfort turned into pressure.
5. South Africa
- Pre-2021: Not out | SR 115.8 | Dot% 31.6
- Post-2021 Avg 95 | SR 137.7 | Dot% 23.2
Improvement → SR (116 → 138), dot% reduced, very strong average. One of his better venues post-2021.
6. U.A.E.
- Pre-2021: Avg 71 | SR 102.9 | Dot% 27.5
- Post-2021: Avg 23.5 | SR 111 | Dot% 39.4
Mixed/Decline → SR improved slightly (103 → 111) but dot% rose significantly (27 → 39), and average dropped (71 → 23). Struggles with rotation.
7. West Indies
- Pre-2021:Avg 71 | SR 106 | Dot% 31.3
- Post-2021: Not out | SR 108.7 | Dot% 34.8
No Major Change → Similar SR (~106 vs 109), slightly higher dot%. Small sample size post-2021.
Analytical Results
- Dot-Ball Pressure:
- Pre-2021 average dot%: 23%
- Post-2021 average dot%: ~30–34% at multiple venues
Clear evidence of strike rotation decline.
Cross-Format Statistical Trends
- Averages Halved: Across formats, his batting average against spin has declined by 40–60%, particularly vs orthodox and off-spin.
- Dot-ball Escalation: Dot% vs spin has increased by 7–12 percentage points in multiple categories. This directly reduces strike rotation efficiency, a critical T20 skill.
- SR vs Leg-spin: An outlier exists where strike rate improved vs legbreak bowlers, but at the cost of stability (average collapse).
- ODIs vs T20Is Contrast: The ODI decline is gradual and reflected in reduced averages + higher dot%. In T20Is, the decline is far sharper, especially vs off-spin, where the data shows a complete collapse of dominance.
Conclusion
Statistically, Babar Azam’s game has regressed against spin bowling since 2021. The data highlights three main areas of concern:
- Collapse vs Off-spin: His average plummeted by over 90% in T20Is, with ODI strike rate and dot% worsening considerably.
- Orthodox Spin Pressure: Where he once averaged 152 in ODIs, he now averages just 74.2, with nearly half his deliveries failing to produce a run (Dot% 48.5).
- Inefficient Strike Rotation: Across formats, rising dot-ball percentages (up to +12 percentage points) indicate he is struggling to manipulate the field against spin.
In short: Babar’s main weakness is not boundary-hitting but the erosion of his strike rotation game against spinners, which was once his strength.
