As we head into the exciting Euro 2024 knockout stage, the final round of matches is underway and the competition is heating up. It’s crucial for every team to secure their spot in the next round. So, how can each team book their place, and who still has work to do? We’ll dissect all six groups and outline the different scenarios and permutations.
Here’s the lowdown: the top two teams from each group will progress to the round of 16, and to add to the drama, the four best runners-up will also advance. What about the third-placed teams? You can find all the key scenarios at the end of this article.
QUALIFIED (8/16): England, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland
ELIMINATED (3/8): Albania, Poland, Scotland
TIEBREAKERS:
If teams are tied on points, the following criteria will be used to determine the order:
1. Head to Head points.
2. Head to Head goal difference.
3. Head to Head goal scored.
If teams are still tied after applying stages 1-3, the following tiebreakers are applied:
4. A separate calculation is made for the tied teams to determine their rankings. For example, if England, Slovenia, and Serbia are tied on points, after applying stages 1-3, England may be ranked first, but Slovenia and Serbia can’t be separated in the three-team mini-league. In this case, the head-to-head result between Slovenia and Serbia would determine the second-place team.
If teams are still tied after this, the following tiebreakers are applied:
5. Group goal difference
6. Group goals scored
7. A penalty shootout if the tied teams are playing each other on the final matchday
8. If the tied teams don’t play each other, the team with the lower disciplinary points (1 point for a yellow card, 3 points for a red card via two yellows, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card)
9. The overall ranking in the European qualifiers, unless Germany is involved, in which case the tie is resolved by a random drawing of lots.
Group A
Germany 5-1 Scotland
Hungary 1-3 Switzerland
Germany 2-0 Hungary
Scotland 1-1 Switzerland
Switzerland 1-1 Germany
Scotland 0-1 Hungary
Germany regained the top spot in the group by scoring a 92nd-minute equalizer against Switzerland, moving Switzerland to second place.
Hungary secured a victory in their game against Scotland with a winning goal in the last of 10 minutes of added time, placing them third on three points with a goal difference of -3.
It’s uncertain whether that will be enough for them to advance, but they have a real chance given that Croatia finished with two points in Group B.
Group B
Spain 3-0 Croatia
Italy 2-1 Albania
Croatia 2-2 Albania
Spain 1-0 Italy
Albania 0-1 Spain
Croatia 1-1 Italy
Italy’s Mattia Zaccagni scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time, securing a 1-1 draw with Croatia and ensuring Italy’s automatic advancement to the round of 16. Croatia’s chances of progressing are slim; they will only advance if England beats Slovenia by 3+ goals and Denmark beats Serbia, or if England beats Serbia by 3+ goals and Serbia beats Denmark by 4+ goals. Spain, already at the top of the standings, concluded their campaign with a 1-0 win over Albania, who finished at the bottom.
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Group C
Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
Serbia 0-1 England
Slovenia 1-1 Serbia
Denmark 1-1 England
Remaining fixtures:
June 25
England vs Slovenia
Denmark vs Serbia
ENGLAND:
Have qualified as they are guaranteed to be, at worst, one of the best third-placed teams.
Win
England will top the group with a win against Slovenia.
Draw
England can win the group with a draw if Denmark fails to beat Serbia.
If England draws and Denmark wins, first place will come down to goal difference (see Denmark section.)
Loss
England can’t win the group with a loss, but they would finish second if Denmark draw.
If England lose and Denmark win, England will finish third and qualify.
If England lose and Serbia win, England finishes second on head-to-head record.
DENMARK:
Would qualify with a draw as they would be guaranteed to be, at worst, one of the best third-placed teams.
WIN If Denmark and England both win, Denmark will finish second.
If Denmark wins and England draws, the top spot will be decided on goal difference. Denmark would take first place if they win by 2 or more goals. If Denmark wins by just one goal, it will come down to goals scored.
If that ends level (e.g. Denmark 1-0, England 0-0), it goes to Fairplay, where England has -1 and Denmark has -4. If that finishes level, it will be decided based on the European Qualifying Ranking, where England is 5th and Denmark is 9th.
If Denmark and Slovenia both win, they will take the top two spots, with first place decided on goal difference, which is currently identical at 2-2. The team with the biggest win, or the highest-scoring win of the same margin (e.g. 2-1 and 1-0), would finish top.
If both teams win by the same scoreline, it will come down to Fairplay, where Denmark has -4 and Slovenia has -4. If that stays level, it will be decided based on the European Qualifying Ranking, where Denmark is 9th and Slovenia is 15th.
Draw
If Denmark draws and England wins, Denmark finishes second. If Denmark and Slovenia draw, the team involved in the higher-scoring draw goes through. For example, if Denmark draws 2-2 and Slovenia draws 1-1, Denmark finishes second.
If both teams draw by the same scoreline, the second place is decided based on Fairplay points (Denmark -4, Slovenia -4).
If that’s level, it’s decided by the European Qualifying Ranking (Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th). If Denmark draws and Slovenia wins, Denmark finishes third and qualifies.
Loss
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.
SLOVENIA:
Would qualify with a draw as they would be guaranteed to be, at worst, one of the best third-placed teams.
Win
Would top the group if Denmark drew/lost. If both Denmark and Slovenia win, the scenarios in the Denmark section apply.
Draw
Can only finish second with a draw if Denmark also draws, then the scenarios over the scorelines in the Denmark section apply. If they finish third on three points, they would definitely qualify.
Loss
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.
SERBIA:
Win
Will definitely qualify with a win over Denmark and will finish second as long as England win/draw.
If Serbia win and England lose, Serbia will finish third on head to head and the would qualify.
Draw
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.
Loss
Cannot qualify.
Group D
Results:
Poland 1-2 Netherlands
Austria 0-1 France
Poland 1-3 Austria
Netherlands 0-0 France
Remaining fixtures:
June 25
France vs Poland
Netherlands vs Austria
NETHERLANDS:
Have qualified as they are guaranteed to be, at worst, one of the best third-placed teams.
Win
If France draw or lose, they will top the group. If France wins, first place will be decided by goal difference. Currently, both teams have a +1 goal difference, so the team that wins by the biggest margin will finish first.
If both teams win by the same score, or if the Netherlands win by a bigger margin, the Netherlands will be first based on goals scored. If both teams win by the same score margin but France scores one more goal (e.g. France wins 2-1 and Netherlands wins 1-0), the teams will have identical records.
In this case, first place will be decided based on Fairplay (France -2, Netherlands -2). If they are still level, their European Qualifying Ranking will be considered (France 2nd, Netherlands 12th).
Draw
If France wins, the Netherlands will finish second. If France loses, the Netherlands will win the group. If France draws, the winner will be decided based on goal difference. If both games are drawn by the same scoreline, the Netherlands will win the group.
If France draws and scores one more goal — for example, 2-2 and 1-1 — the teams would have identical records. The winner would then be decided based on Fairplay (France -2, Netherlands -2).
If it’s still level, it will be decided based on European Qualifying Ranking (France 2nd, Netherlands 12th). If France draws and scores two more goals — for example, 3-3 and 1-1 — France will win the group.
Loss
In order to finish in the top two, the Netherlands can only advance if France loses. If both teams lose, the Netherlands will finish second if France loses by a larger margin. However, if both teams lose by the same score margin and France scores one more goal, the teams would have identical records.
In this case, the tiebreaker will be based on Fairplay (France -2, Netherlands -2). If they are still tied, the European Qualifying Ranking will be considered (France is 2nd, Netherlands 12th). However, it’s important to note that both teams have already qualified for the next stage regardless.
FRANCE:
Have qualified as they are guaranteed to be, at worst, one of the best third-placed teams.
Win
Will top the group if Netherlands draw/lose. If Netherlands win, first place comes down to goal difference (see Netherlands section.)
Draw
If the Netherlands win, France finishes second. If Netherlands draw, first will be decided on goal difference between France and Netherlands (see Netherlands section.) If Netherlands lose, France finishes second and Austria wins the group.
Loss
Will definitely finish in the top two if Netherlands draw/win. If Netherlands lose, then it comes down to goal difference (see Netherlands section.) However, both have qualified regardless.
AUSTRIA:
Will qualify as long as they do not lose to Netherlands by 4+ goals.
Win
Guaranteed to qualify, and will win the group if France draw/lose. If France wins, Austria finishes second.
Draw
Cannot finish in the top two, but guaranteed to qualify with four points in third.
Loss
Would finish third and would have to lose by 4+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.
POLAND:
Were the first team to be eliminated.
Group E
Results:
Romania 3-0 Ukraine
Belgium 0-1 Slovakia
Slovakia 1-2 Ukraine
Belgium 2-0 Romania
Remaining fixtures:
June 26
Ukraine vs Belgium
Slovakia vs Romania
ROMANIA:
Will qualify as long as they do not lose to Netherlands by 4+ goals.
Win
Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Ukraine win/draw. If Belgium wins, Romania finishes second on head to head.
Draw
If there is a winner between Belgium and Ukraine, Romania will finish second based on goal difference compared to Slovakia. If both games are drawn, Romania and Belgium will take first and second place, but will both have a goal difference of +1.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but as all four teams are level, it’s initially decided by the overall group difference. If both games are drawn with the same scoreline, Romania will win the group based on goals scored.
If Belgium draws with one more goal scored (e.g. 2-2 and 1-1), then the head-to-head is re-run between just those two countries, meaning Belgium will win the group. If Belgium draws with 2 or more goals scored than the other match (e.g. 3-3 and 1-1), Belgium will win the group.
Therefore, with two draws, Romania can only win the group if the draws are of the same scoreline or if Romania scores more goals than Belgium.
Loss
Will finish bottom if Ukraine wins/draws. If Belgium win, Romania finishes third over Ukraine on head to head and would have to lose by 4+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.
BELGIUM:
Will qualify as long as they do not lose to Slovakia by 4+ goals.
Win
Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Romania win/draw. If Slovakia wins, Belgium finishes second in head to head.
Draw
Guaranteed to qualify. If there is a winner between Slovakia and Romania, Belgium finishes second on head to head over Romania. If both games are drawn, the scenarios in the Romania section apply.
Loss
Will finish bottom if Romania wins or draws. If Slovakia wins, Belgium finishes third over Romania on head-to-head and would have to lose by 4+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.
SLOVAKIA:
Need a point to definitely go through.
Win
Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Belgium win/draw. If Ukraine wins, Slovakia finishes second in head to head.
Draw
Slovakia will finish third regardless of the other result and four points would see them through.
Loss
Will finish third only if Ukraine wins, and would have to lose by 3+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.
UKRAINE:
Must win to guarantee qualification.
Win
Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Slovakia win/draw. If Romania wins, Ukraine finishes second in head to head.
Draw
Will finish third if there is a winner in the other match, and four points would see them through. If both games are drawn, Ukraine finishes bottom.
Loss
Will finish third only if Romania win, and then must wait to see if three points is enough with their goal difference.
Group F
Results:
Turkey 3-1 Georgia
Portugal 2-1 Czechia
Georgia 1-1 Czechia
Turkey 0-3 Portugal
Remaining fixtures:
June 26
Czechia vs Turkey
Georgia vs Portugal
PORTUGAL:
Have qualified as group winners as they hold the head to head over Turkey.
TURKEY:
Need a point to qualify.
Win/draw
Will finish in second place with a win/draw against Czechia.
Loss
Cannot finish in the top two with a defeat. However, if Georgia draws or loses, Turkey will finish third and might go through with three points. If Turkey loses and Georgia wins, Turkey will finish bottom.
CZECHIA:
Must win to have a chance.
Win
In order to have a chance, it is necessary to defeat Turkey. If Czech Republic and Georgia both win, the two teams will have the same number of points and the team that finishes second will be determined by goal difference (refer to the Georgia section). However, the team that finishes third will advance with four points. If Czechia wins and Georgia draws or loses, Czechia will finish second.
Draw
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.
Loss
Cannot qualify.
GEORGIA:
Must win to have a chance.
Win
Guaranteed to qualify: If both Georgia and the Czech Republic win, second place will come down to goal difference, but both teams will qualify. Georgia will have to close a one-goal gap in goal difference on the Czech Republic to have a chance of finishing second, so they must win by a greater margin.
If goal difference finishes level (e.g. Georgia wins 2-0 and the Czech Republic wins 2-1), it will come down to Fair Play points (Georgia -5, Czech Republic -6). If that ends level, European Qualifying Ranking will be considered (Czech Republic 17th, Georgia 34th).
If Georgia wins by a margin of two or more goals more than the Czech Republic (for example, 3-0 and 2-1), Georgia will finish second. If Georgia wins by the same margin as the Czech Republic, the Czech Republic will finish second.
If Georgia wins and the Czech Republic draws or loses, Georgia will finish third, and four points will see them through.
Draw
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.
Loss
Cannot qualify.
Ranking of best Third placed teams
The four best runners-up will advance to the round of 16. This format has been used in two previous editions, and on both occasions, teams with four points were able to progress.
During Euro 2020, Ukraine managed to advance with three points. Similarly, at Euro 2016, both Northern Ireland and the eventual winners Portugal advanced with three points.
It is now known that a team needs at least three points and a goal difference of minus-2 to secure one of the best third-place positions.
The team in third place is determined based on the following criteria, in order:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Wins
5. Fewer disciplinary points
6. Overall ranking in European qualifiers, unless Germany is involved. In that case, a random draw will determine the position.
Although the current top six are outlined, another team could quickly move into third place or drop down to that position in the group.
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